A three-way race in the Gorton and Denton by-election

A by-election has been called in the Greater Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton, after Independent MP Andrew Gwynne resigned on 22 January citing "significant ill-health".

Gwynne had been the Labour MP for Gorton and Denton since 2005, but was suspended from the party in February 2025, after it was revealed that he had joked about an elderly constituent's death, and made racist and misogynistic comments about fellow Labour MPs.

While the area of Gorton and Denton has historically voted Labour, the party is in a three-way race with Reform and the Greens. A loss could further weaken Kier Starmer's premiership, particularly after the scandal surrounding Peter Mandelson re-erupted and threatened to engulf his premiership at the beginning of February.

This is not the first internal dispute within Labour as part of the by-election, as Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham was blocked from standing by the National Executive Committee (NEC) in an 8-1 vote at the end of January. Burnham's attempt to stand was widely viewed as a step towards challenging the Prime Minister for Labour leadership.

Seizing on this opportunity, Reform UK's candidate Matt Goodwin has posed the by-election as "referendum on Keir Starmer". Some projections, including Electoral Calculus, have placed the party as the frontrunners, however Reform and Goodwin are not without their own controversies.

Goodwin recently came under pressure after he claimed "Many women in Britain are having children much too late in life", and Greater Manchester Police are currently investigating Reform after they appeared to have distributed a campaign letter disguised as a letter from a neighbour.

Reform's actions have been condemned by both Labour and the Greens, and both parties have focused their campaigns on preventing Reform from winning.

The Greens have placed themselves as the "alternative that will stop Reform", and argued in comments made to the Manchester Evening News that the race is between the two parties.

The Greens are currently the bookies' favourite, with 2/5 odds of winning the election on 26 February, particularly given candidate Hannah Spencer's local background.

However, the campaign hasn't been entirely positive for the Greens, after they were criticised for misrepresenting analysis by University of Manchester Professor Rob Ford, framing his comments to suggest they had the best path to winning the by-election.

For Labour, the party faces an uphill battle to retain the seat it won with a majority of 13,000 just two years ago, but those within the party have made it clear that aren't ready to give up yet, holding out hope that local figures like Andy Burnham can make the difference.

For their candidate, local councillor Angeliki Stogia, the battle is personal. Speaking at a rally on 14 February, she hit out against Goodwin and Reform for "[breaking] down our country". In the same speech, she also described the Green's policies as "uncosted, unbudgeted, dreamt-up", drawing a line of separation between their progressive politics, and that of Andy Burnham's.

The Gorton and Denton by-election will take place on February 26, and a full list of candidates can be found here.